See new article on www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk re new Arsenal striker Olivier Giroud. Is he a potential fantasy premier league bargain as the sole striker once RVP leaves or is he merely an 80 minute sub plus Carling Cup and FA cup player.
http://www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk/new-fantasy-premier-league-player-olivier-giroud/
Blog for www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk. For all players of fantasy premier league and all fantasy football formats Blog for http//www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk. http//www.facebook.com/fantasyfootballgeek
Saturday, 30 June 2012
Monday, 25 June 2012
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE - MANAGER PREVIEW - CHRIS HOUGHTON
The Norwich players and all fantasy premier managers wont know what hit them next season. Imagine being, or owning from a fantasy premier league view point, Andrew Surman and not have to spend until 2.30 on a Saturday wondering if he's going to be in the starting line up.
Rotation was the essence of Paul Lamberts Norwich City. That was great for fans as their high tempo high pressure attacking football saw Norwich finish in an amazing 12th place, scoring more goals than anyone outside the top 6. Grant Holt scored 15 goals in 24 games (imagine if he played regularly!) and was the highest English goal scorer in the premier league after Wayne Rooney.
Imagine the pressure that Chris Hughton is under to follow that. Except that this will seem like a stroll in the park when in the previous season you saw the owner arrested for money laundering shortly after you were appointed. The resultant financial turmoil saw a sell off of anyone that could raise a few quid including Gardner, Jerome, Dann and Ferguson. Despite this Hughton presided over his own miracle season and Birmingham finished 4th losing in a 2 leg play off with Blackpool.
The challenge for Hughton will be centred around whether he can keep Grant Holt. There have already been a number of reports saying the striker wants to leave. Without a reliable defence Holt will definitely be needed to compensate for a team that only kept a total of 3 clean sheets last year. However Hughton is known as a methodical organised manager and a strong tactician who should improve the clean sheet column.
Fantasy premier league players views on Norwich will very much be dependent on price. Its hard to think that there will be so many bargains as there were last season and this will probably compensate in a negative way for more certainty over players game time. Therefore I will be one fantasy premier manager who will be very cautious.
Rotation was the essence of Paul Lamberts Norwich City. That was great for fans as their high tempo high pressure attacking football saw Norwich finish in an amazing 12th place, scoring more goals than anyone outside the top 6. Grant Holt scored 15 goals in 24 games (imagine if he played regularly!) and was the highest English goal scorer in the premier league after Wayne Rooney.
Imagine the pressure that Chris Hughton is under to follow that. Except that this will seem like a stroll in the park when in the previous season you saw the owner arrested for money laundering shortly after you were appointed. The resultant financial turmoil saw a sell off of anyone that could raise a few quid including Gardner, Jerome, Dann and Ferguson. Despite this Hughton presided over his own miracle season and Birmingham finished 4th losing in a 2 leg play off with Blackpool.
The challenge for Hughton will be centred around whether he can keep Grant Holt. There have already been a number of reports saying the striker wants to leave. Without a reliable defence Holt will definitely be needed to compensate for a team that only kept a total of 3 clean sheets last year. However Hughton is known as a methodical organised manager and a strong tactician who should improve the clean sheet column.
Fantasy premier league players views on Norwich will very much be dependent on price. Its hard to think that there will be so many bargains as there were last season and this will probably compensate in a negative way for more certainty over players game time. Therefore I will be one fantasy premier manager who will be very cautious.
Sunday, 24 June 2012
EURO 2012 FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE REVIEW ENGLAND V ITALY
No matter what Chelsea did this season you cant consistently keep winning without the ball. 37% possession and 12 shots to 49 really is an indictment of Englands performance. Much as it pains me any other result would have been a footballing travesty.
I wont go through each England player individually but just give a short comment in the context of fantasy premier league. How much can you comment when they had so little ball.
Joe Hart was fantastic, made some great saves and looks to be the premium fantasy premier league keeper.
The back 4 were great especially Johnson and Terry. However it was a backs to the wall performance of blocks, headers and interceptions rather than getting forward although Johnson did in the first half.
The theme in the midfield was the same. The first half saw the England team get behind the Italian defence on a number of occasions, Milner in particular surprisingly. Young was poor, always giving away possession and crossing poorly. The penalty miss summed up his performance. You really have to think that Young is far behind Nani for his fantasy premier league Man U spot after this performance and in the tournament.
Gerrard and Parker, again it was a case of chasing, tackling and harrying rather than creating. However, the situation was of their own making as they continually gave the ball away either through sloppy passing or a continued desire to play the long ball rather than construct an attack with any patience.
Of the forwards, it was another poor game from Rooney and didn't reflect his fantasy premier league season. He didn't hold the ball up well or passed and his touch was poor. His finishing, what chances he had, didn't look as sharp as we would normally expect. Additionally, if he was designated to pick up Pirlo he sure didn't bother after the first half.
Welbeck overall did well in the tournament and has to have enhanced a starting spot come the season kick off. Today his highlights, ironically, were his defending.
The only fantasy premier league player in the Italian team was Ballotelli who was excellent and unlucky not to score. He led the line well, positioned himself in the box cleverly and again enhanced his case for a starting spot come the 18th August.
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I wont go through each England player individually but just give a short comment in the context of fantasy premier league. How much can you comment when they had so little ball.
Joe Hart was fantastic, made some great saves and looks to be the premium fantasy premier league keeper.
The back 4 were great especially Johnson and Terry. However it was a backs to the wall performance of blocks, headers and interceptions rather than getting forward although Johnson did in the first half.
The theme in the midfield was the same. The first half saw the England team get behind the Italian defence on a number of occasions, Milner in particular surprisingly. Young was poor, always giving away possession and crossing poorly. The penalty miss summed up his performance. You really have to think that Young is far behind Nani for his fantasy premier league Man U spot after this performance and in the tournament.
Gerrard and Parker, again it was a case of chasing, tackling and harrying rather than creating. However, the situation was of their own making as they continually gave the ball away either through sloppy passing or a continued desire to play the long ball rather than construct an attack with any patience.
Of the forwards, it was another poor game from Rooney and didn't reflect his fantasy premier league season. He didn't hold the ball up well or passed and his touch was poor. His finishing, what chances he had, didn't look as sharp as we would normally expect. Additionally, if he was designated to pick up Pirlo he sure didn't bother after the first half.
Welbeck overall did well in the tournament and has to have enhanced a starting spot come the season kick off. Today his highlights, ironically, were his defending.
The only fantasy premier league player in the Italian team was Ballotelli who was excellent and unlucky not to score. He led the line well, positioned himself in the box cleverly and again enhanced his case for a starting spot come the 18th August.
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FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE - NEW MANAGERS - PAUL LAMBERT
The conundrum with Paul Lamberts Norwich City last year went along the following lines: You see that your premium midfielder of, say, Nani is on the bench being "rested", you look towards your own fantasy premier league bench and see that Andrew Surman, who the week before scored a goal and an assist and took all the corners and the majority of free kicks to come on and bag you some points. for some unknown reason though Paul Lambert has rotated him and its nil poit all round. Arghh.... This is despite the fact that Norwich aren't in Europe and are out of the FA and Carling Cup. So why rotate? It makes no sense! Never has such a smorgasbord of quality value midfielders, who consistently perform well, left out virtually every second week irrespective of form. It made for virtually the entire Norwich team, Grant Holt apart, (well Lambert was a tinkerer, he wasn't crazy, Holt was a cut price revelation last year) as unworkable in fantasy premier league. You just couldn't pick them in fantasy premier league due to his rotation policy.
By way of background, the 42 year old Scot has seen an impressive playing career with Celtic and Borussia Dortmund followed by a successful management career with Livingston , Wycombe and Colchester. His management career has culminated in a hugely successful spell at Norwich where he guided the club to successive promotions from league 1 to the premier league. His first season in the premier league was a major success with the team finishing 12th. They won many admirers for their attacking style and Lambert gained many plaudits for success on a low budget and bringing unknown players through the divisions. A draw away to Liverpoool and a win at Spurs also did his reputation no harm. In addition Grant Holt was a revelation. However, apart from the 3 relegated teams they conceded more goals than anyone except QPR and Wigan. No fantasy premier league manager would hold a Norwich defender for any other reason than price.
From a fantasy premier league perspective then what does the upcoming season hold for Aston Villa with Paul Lambert. The interesting point is that you have a manager of a team with an attacking philosophy taking over a team who scored less goals than anyone last year except Stoke and we all know they were too preoccupied with kicking the opposition. The defence however performed better than most in the bottom regions of the table. So will Lambert be able to improve the attack stats while not upsetting the prospects of a reasonably solid defence? There are so many other unanswered questions. Will he also look to bring through the youngsters as his predecessor was forced to. Will Villa suddenly be packed full of former Port Vale and Doncaster Rovers players as Lambert did at Nowich. Will he just name his team after randomly picking names out of hats like he seemed to do at Norwich. No one knows the answers to these questions at the moment apart from Lambert himself which is why I, as a fantasy premier league manager, will be giving villa players a wide berth.
The one advantage he will have is Darren Bent. Forget his rather donkey like reputation, from a fantasy premier league perspective the man is a proven goal scorer and goals mean bonus points seemingly whether you're involved in the play generally a la Wayne Rooney or a tap in merchant like Jermaine Defoe. He may also be good value this year due to injury and poor form. Like him or not as a footballer the man has scored 147 goals in 346 games in his career. His record for Sunderland was 32 goals in 58 games and even for 2 pretty negative managers at Villa it was 18 in 38 games. He's worth monitoring even if no one else is and hopefully Lamberts attacking style will get the best out of him for us fantasy premier league managers willing to take a punt. A reasonable set of opening fixtures could make bent a worthwhile fantasy premier league bet for the brave. Me, Ill be just monitoring.
By way of background, the 42 year old Scot has seen an impressive playing career with Celtic and Borussia Dortmund followed by a successful management career with Livingston , Wycombe and Colchester. His management career has culminated in a hugely successful spell at Norwich where he guided the club to successive promotions from league 1 to the premier league. His first season in the premier league was a major success with the team finishing 12th. They won many admirers for their attacking style and Lambert gained many plaudits for success on a low budget and bringing unknown players through the divisions. A draw away to Liverpoool and a win at Spurs also did his reputation no harm. In addition Grant Holt was a revelation. However, apart from the 3 relegated teams they conceded more goals than anyone except QPR and Wigan. No fantasy premier league manager would hold a Norwich defender for any other reason than price.
From a fantasy premier league perspective then what does the upcoming season hold for Aston Villa with Paul Lambert. The interesting point is that you have a manager of a team with an attacking philosophy taking over a team who scored less goals than anyone last year except Stoke and we all know they were too preoccupied with kicking the opposition. The defence however performed better than most in the bottom regions of the table. So will Lambert be able to improve the attack stats while not upsetting the prospects of a reasonably solid defence? There are so many other unanswered questions. Will he also look to bring through the youngsters as his predecessor was forced to. Will Villa suddenly be packed full of former Port Vale and Doncaster Rovers players as Lambert did at Nowich. Will he just name his team after randomly picking names out of hats like he seemed to do at Norwich. No one knows the answers to these questions at the moment apart from Lambert himself which is why I, as a fantasy premier league manager, will be giving villa players a wide berth.
The one advantage he will have is Darren Bent. Forget his rather donkey like reputation, from a fantasy premier league perspective the man is a proven goal scorer and goals mean bonus points seemingly whether you're involved in the play generally a la Wayne Rooney or a tap in merchant like Jermaine Defoe. He may also be good value this year due to injury and poor form. Like him or not as a footballer the man has scored 147 goals in 346 games in his career. His record for Sunderland was 32 goals in 58 games and even for 2 pretty negative managers at Villa it was 18 in 38 games. He's worth monitoring even if no one else is and hopefully Lamberts attacking style will get the best out of him for us fantasy premier league managers willing to take a punt. A reasonable set of opening fixtures could make bent a worthwhile fantasy premier league bet for the brave. Me, Ill be just monitoring.
Friday, 22 June 2012
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYER PREVIEW - EDEN HAZARD
Do you think anyone at Chelsea really thought about how they were going to use the Belgium born 21 year old attacking midfielder/winger when they bought him. I wonder if the Barcelona obsession is finally getting to Roman Abramovich. The prospect of buying an incredibly talented and technical 5'7" player was just too tempting for him one suspects. Personally after seeing Chelsea play, in the Champions league especially, this season, I think they got it right last summer when they wanted to buy Luka Modric. Or anyone of similar style whose speciality isn't to give the ball back to the opposition as soon as Chelsea have won it.
However, you cant argue with last seasons haul of 20 goals and 15 assists in 38 games in the French league for Lille as well as the player of the season for the second year running. Those are the stats that get us fantasy football managers excited. I imagine Chelsea are planning on using him on the right with 3 up front with Mata on the left and Torres in the centre. Now Torres should reduce his assist total for the season! That does beg the question of what happens to Daniel Sturridge or how they deploy the Hulk assuming he eventually arrives. However, the potential of playing in the front 3 , Torres or not, does mean there is a fair prospect of a strong points haul in fantasy football for Hazard.
There's no doubting his quality in finishing and dribbling. Last years haul was quite astonishing even allowing for the quality of the league. The year before though was not quite so convincing with 7 goals and 10 assists in 38 goals. His European stats aren't anything like as convincing though with 1 assist in the last 2 years from 13 games.
My view then is we need to see him in a few friendlies to see how he is planning on being used by De Matteo. This should give an early view of his prospects in fantasy football. He does have a distinct advantage of rest, not having been part of Euro 2012, which should make him less of a rotation target. However, the Chelsea midfield haven't been too affected by Euro 2012 with Lampard at home through injury and Mata only warming the bench to date. This may negate that advantage.
There's also the adjustment to the premier league which has affected some midfield signings, even David Silva took some time although Van der Vaart and Mata adjusted fairly quickly.
I've therefore firmly got him in the monitor box although I have to say he will have to do a fair bit to get in to my fantasy football starting lineup as a new player to the league. However, Chelsea's fixtures are among the easiest to start with and there are some pretty enticing home games early on so its definitely possible.
However, you cant argue with last seasons haul of 20 goals and 15 assists in 38 games in the French league for Lille as well as the player of the season for the second year running. Those are the stats that get us fantasy football managers excited. I imagine Chelsea are planning on using him on the right with 3 up front with Mata on the left and Torres in the centre. Now Torres should reduce his assist total for the season! That does beg the question of what happens to Daniel Sturridge or how they deploy the Hulk assuming he eventually arrives. However, the potential of playing in the front 3 , Torres or not, does mean there is a fair prospect of a strong points haul in fantasy football for Hazard.
There's no doubting his quality in finishing and dribbling. Last years haul was quite astonishing even allowing for the quality of the league. The year before though was not quite so convincing with 7 goals and 10 assists in 38 goals. His European stats aren't anything like as convincing though with 1 assist in the last 2 years from 13 games.
My view then is we need to see him in a few friendlies to see how he is planning on being used by De Matteo. This should give an early view of his prospects in fantasy football. He does have a distinct advantage of rest, not having been part of Euro 2012, which should make him less of a rotation target. However, the Chelsea midfield haven't been too affected by Euro 2012 with Lampard at home through injury and Mata only warming the bench to date. This may negate that advantage.
There's also the adjustment to the premier league which has affected some midfield signings, even David Silva took some time although Van der Vaart and Mata adjusted fairly quickly.
I've therefore firmly got him in the monitor box although I have to say he will have to do a fair bit to get in to my fantasy football starting lineup as a new player to the league. However, Chelsea's fixtures are among the easiest to start with and there are some pretty enticing home games early on so its definitely possible.
Thursday, 21 June 2012
EURO 2012 - FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYER REVIEW
Its our Euro 2012 quarter final review of players from the premier league. The first Euro 2012 game is Portugal vs Czech Republic. What a poor game this was. Rosickys injury seemed to have sucked all the ambition out of the Czech team. 40% possession, 3 shots compared to Portugals 30, I mean why bother even coming out of the dressing room. No team deserves to win with these stats. Ronaldo was amazing as usual. He's missed a great deal in fantasy premier league, I would even welcome him back in a City shirt (Hmm... maybe not)
PORTUGAL
Raul Meireles
Played very deep and just looked to play the ball to Ronaldo whenever he got it. Hard to believe looking at this that he was the player who scored so many goals for Liverpool a couple of years back. Not a fantasy option at all due to uncertainty over pitch time, lack of attacking threat and better options in the Chelsea camp
Nani
Its hard to imagine looking at this game that Nani, two seasons ago, would be a better fantasy premier league captain option for Man U before Rooney. I must have jinxed him for this Euro 2012 game by saying how good he is. Very quiet, swapped sides of the pitch with Ronaldo when required but made no difference to the game either way. Made the pass before the assist for Ronaldos goal but was disappointing. Still an option for me next year at this stage.
CZECH REPUBLIC
Czech
Normal service was resumed here for this Euro 2012 game. Czech had a great game with a couple of quality saves after some poor performances. Not sure whether I felt more sorry for him being the last line in a totally unambitious team or if it was when he came up for the last corner and it didn't even make the penalty area!
Not an option for me. I'll be going for 2 cheap rotating goal keepers in fantasy premier league.
Lets hope the German v Greece game is better, although it has the potential to be a carbon copy unfortunately. Join us for this next Euro 2012 game.
PORTUGAL
Raul Meireles
Played very deep and just looked to play the ball to Ronaldo whenever he got it. Hard to believe looking at this that he was the player who scored so many goals for Liverpool a couple of years back. Not a fantasy option at all due to uncertainty over pitch time, lack of attacking threat and better options in the Chelsea camp
Nani
Its hard to imagine looking at this game that Nani, two seasons ago, would be a better fantasy premier league captain option for Man U before Rooney. I must have jinxed him for this Euro 2012 game by saying how good he is. Very quiet, swapped sides of the pitch with Ronaldo when required but made no difference to the game either way. Made the pass before the assist for Ronaldos goal but was disappointing. Still an option for me next year at this stage.
CZECH REPUBLIC
Czech
Normal service was resumed here for this Euro 2012 game. Czech had a great game with a couple of quality saves after some poor performances. Not sure whether I felt more sorry for him being the last line in a totally unambitious team or if it was when he came up for the last corner and it didn't even make the penalty area!
Not an option for me. I'll be going for 2 cheap rotating goal keepers in fantasy premier league.
Lets hope the German v Greece game is better, although it has the potential to be a carbon copy unfortunately. Join us for this next Euro 2012 game.
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
EURO 2012 QUARTER FINAL TRANSFER RUMOURS TO WATCH
Just for a bit of additional interest when you're watching the Euro 2012 quarter finals keep an eye out for a couple of people who may come to fantasy premier league for 2012 - 2013.
According to football 365 Newcastle United boss Alan Pardew has offered £4m for France right back Mathieu Debuchy.
Not that he will be playing in Euro 2012 but Spain third choice Pepe Reina is wanted by AC Milan according to the Guardian
Again will probably wont play but Spain and Athletic Bilbao's Javi Martinez seems to be Chelseas first choice defensive transfer according to the BBC although my bet is Manchester City will sign him.
The sun have said that AC Milan have ruled out signing Mario Ballotelli. Lets see what they're saying when RVP signs
Lastly, and on to Euro 2012 managers not players, according to the Guardian its a toss up between AVB and French manager Laurent Blanc for the next Spurs boss.
I'll be giving my views on some current players performances in these Euro 2012 quarter finals on the weekend.
According to football 365 Newcastle United boss Alan Pardew has offered £4m for France right back Mathieu Debuchy.
Not that he will be playing in Euro 2012 but Spain third choice Pepe Reina is wanted by AC Milan according to the Guardian
Again will probably wont play but Spain and Athletic Bilbao's Javi Martinez seems to be Chelseas first choice defensive transfer according to the BBC although my bet is Manchester City will sign him.
The sun have said that AC Milan have ruled out signing Mario Ballotelli. Lets see what they're saying when RVP signs
Lastly, and on to Euro 2012 managers not players, according to the Guardian its a toss up between AVB and French manager Laurent Blanc for the next Spurs boss.
I'll be giving my views on some current players performances in these Euro 2012 quarter finals on the weekend.
Barclays Fantasy Premier League 2012/13 will launch mid-July. Facebook version late July.
You will all see from e mails that the Barclays fantasy premier league format will launch again in mid July. We will have initial views on bargains and must haves, so set your calender!
Around 2 weeks to go for the Barclays fantasy premier league format !
1 month to go for the facebook fantasy premier league format
Around 2 weeks to go for the Barclays fantasy premier league format !
1 month to go for the facebook fantasy premier league format
Tuesday, 19 June 2012
EURO 2012 - PLAYER REVIEW ENGLAND V UKRAINE
Nothing like sitting back with 43% possession, being behind in the shot count 21-13 and have a legitimate goal disallowed but a wins a win and England progresses.
Here's a view on a few of the players in this Euro 2012 game from a fantasy premier league perspective.
John Terry
Had a great game with loads of interceptions and blocks so would have been looking for bonus points under the barclays format. Did lose his man for the "goal" but one of the few mistakes. Is a rather expensive option for next year in fantasy premier league and with De Matteo staying as manager you've got to think there will be respect for the clean sheet. I will be looking at the right back position for value. Had an off target header from a corner as well and does have attacking potential to add to the mix as well. This was showed by his 3 goals last year showed.
Glen Johnson
Got forward on a number of occasions and defended relatively solidly. His attacking prowess makes him an option for next year,albeit a very expensive one, and my initial view is that Rodgers will improve Liverpools defence.
Stephen Gerrard.
Another Euro 2012 game, another assist from his centre midfield position which is relatively deep compared to his Liverpool position. Personally I think he wanders around too much for the Roy Hodgson way of playing. His prospects for fantasy premier league next year depend on where the new manager sees him playing. Another question is how will his position be affected if Sigurdsson signs as its hard to see him playing anywhere except behind the striker.
Ashley Young
Was a real threat with his crossing and my man of the match in this Euro 2012 game. Didn't really look like a goal threat though which was the only negative.
I would always have Nani in my fantasy premier league team ahead of Young but his shooting stats are normally reasonably good although he is another midfielder who relys on others converting his key passes. Rotation is a problem as well. Very much a monitor for next year.
Wayne Rooney
His touch was poor and he was wasteful in possession and didn't really contribute much but he scored and that in the end was all that mattered. Rooney can be absolutely fantastic and he can be poor but hes always a goal threat and this game was no exception. Despite a poor game he still had 3 gilt edged chances to score and thats why RVP is the only striker ahead of him in fantasy football
Danny Welbeck
Quiet game and not surprised he was subbed. As far as next year he has reasonably good shooting stats but rotation means something would have to change before he could be considered for my fantasy premier league team.
See you on the weekend for more Euro 2012.
Here's a view on a few of the players in this Euro 2012 game from a fantasy premier league perspective.
John Terry
Had a great game with loads of interceptions and blocks so would have been looking for bonus points under the barclays format. Did lose his man for the "goal" but one of the few mistakes. Is a rather expensive option for next year in fantasy premier league and with De Matteo staying as manager you've got to think there will be respect for the clean sheet. I will be looking at the right back position for value. Had an off target header from a corner as well and does have attacking potential to add to the mix as well. This was showed by his 3 goals last year showed.
Glen Johnson
Got forward on a number of occasions and defended relatively solidly. His attacking prowess makes him an option for next year,albeit a very expensive one, and my initial view is that Rodgers will improve Liverpools defence.
Stephen Gerrard.
Another Euro 2012 game, another assist from his centre midfield position which is relatively deep compared to his Liverpool position. Personally I think he wanders around too much for the Roy Hodgson way of playing. His prospects for fantasy premier league next year depend on where the new manager sees him playing. Another question is how will his position be affected if Sigurdsson signs as its hard to see him playing anywhere except behind the striker.
Ashley Young
Was a real threat with his crossing and my man of the match in this Euro 2012 game. Didn't really look like a goal threat though which was the only negative.
I would always have Nani in my fantasy premier league team ahead of Young but his shooting stats are normally reasonably good although he is another midfielder who relys on others converting his key passes. Rotation is a problem as well. Very much a monitor for next year.
Wayne Rooney
His touch was poor and he was wasteful in possession and didn't really contribute much but he scored and that in the end was all that mattered. Rooney can be absolutely fantastic and he can be poor but hes always a goal threat and this game was no exception. Despite a poor game he still had 3 gilt edged chances to score and thats why RVP is the only striker ahead of him in fantasy football
Danny Welbeck
Quiet game and not surprised he was subbed. As far as next year he has reasonably good shooting stats but rotation means something would have to change before he could be considered for my fantasy premier league team.
See you on the weekend for more Euro 2012.
Monday, 18 June 2012
EURO 2012 - PLAYER REVIEW - CROATIA V SPAIN
Hmmm what game to watch in Euro 2012 tonight to look at upcoming fantasy premier league players. Two great attacking teams in Spain and Croatia with Iniesta, Xavi and Modric on show or two sides obsessed with defence in Ireland and Italy with Glen Whelan, John O'Shea and Jon Walters on show......
So Croatia v Spain it is. So here's my thoughts on individual players in this Euro 2012 game.
CROATIA
Luka Modric - Not really a fantasy premier league force due to the fact that he plays quite deep for Spurs as a player who keeps them ticking along rather than threatens by getting forward in the penalty box. One of the top chance creators in the premier league but without goals this hasn't translated in to fantasy premier league points. In Euro 2012 its been a different story though and he's played much further up the pitch. Tonight he was terrific and played close to the striker(s) most of the game. In fact in the early part of the second half he looked like a second striker. He was the one player that consistently kept possession. He also produced the one moment that could have turned the game Croatias way when he produced an outside the foot cross to Rakitic to head from the edge of the 6 yard box straight at Casillas. If he does stay at Spurs and plays in this position he could be a viable fantasy premier league option although his lack of goal output will always make me reluctant.
Jelavic
Was a real Euro 2012 success but in this game came on at the 66th minute and never really had a chance to change Croatia's fortunes.
A real success last year and will be a force next year. Has great shots per minute stats and shots on target percentage. I'm a big fan and have big expectations even within a fairly defensive Everton team.
SPAIN
Silva
In this Euro 2012 game Silva played on the right in a front three and was often in advanced positions and a potential goal threat. Fluffed three "shots" in the first half and one blocked shot in the second. Played as the lone striker for a short period before going off in the 73rd minute.
Doesn't shoot enough as a midfield option for me but is still an option given Man Citys goal scoring threat in the premier league. Can't be ignored for next season
Torres
This was more like the Torres of last year. Anonymous and with limited goal threat. Kept quiet by Corluka. I mean come on! Not an option for me, terrible shooting stats and just plain terrible.
So Croatia v Spain it is. So here's my thoughts on individual players in this Euro 2012 game.
CROATIA
Luka Modric - Not really a fantasy premier league force due to the fact that he plays quite deep for Spurs as a player who keeps them ticking along rather than threatens by getting forward in the penalty box. One of the top chance creators in the premier league but without goals this hasn't translated in to fantasy premier league points. In Euro 2012 its been a different story though and he's played much further up the pitch. Tonight he was terrific and played close to the striker(s) most of the game. In fact in the early part of the second half he looked like a second striker. He was the one player that consistently kept possession. He also produced the one moment that could have turned the game Croatias way when he produced an outside the foot cross to Rakitic to head from the edge of the 6 yard box straight at Casillas. If he does stay at Spurs and plays in this position he could be a viable fantasy premier league option although his lack of goal output will always make me reluctant.
Jelavic
Was a real Euro 2012 success but in this game came on at the 66th minute and never really had a chance to change Croatia's fortunes.
A real success last year and will be a force next year. Has great shots per minute stats and shots on target percentage. I'm a big fan and have big expectations even within a fairly defensive Everton team.
SPAIN
Silva
In this Euro 2012 game Silva played on the right in a front three and was often in advanced positions and a potential goal threat. Fluffed three "shots" in the first half and one blocked shot in the second. Played as the lone striker for a short period before going off in the 73rd minute.
Doesn't shoot enough as a midfield option for me but is still an option given Man Citys goal scoring threat in the premier league. Can't be ignored for next season
Torres
This was more like the Torres of last year. Anonymous and with limited goal threat. Kept quiet by Corluka. I mean come on! Not an option for me, terrible shooting stats and just plain terrible.
Sunday, 17 June 2012
EURO 2012 - FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYER REVIEW
This is a review of the fantasy premier league players on show in the Portugal v Holland game and the Germany v Denmark game.
As an aside what a fantastic player Ronaldo is. Class is indeed permanent. Will there ever be a time again when you set your captain choice in fantasy premier league at the beginning of the season and then leave it there until the end?. Van Persie was close this year but there will never be another fantasy premier league player like him.
Players in Portugal v Holland
Meireles - Portugal and Chelsea
Subbed off after 72 minutes after a rather questionable reaction to a pretty tame foul, this summed up really what a fantasy premier league irrelevance he is. Nothing worthwhile to report. Too rotation prone at Chelsea for fantasy premier league. Hard to think he will even be there.
Nani - Portugal and Manchester United
I am biased as I think Nani is an amazing player . He shoots, he provides key passes and he would always be ahead of Ashley Young for me if it was a straight choice. missed a sitter but set up a great goal for Ronaldo. Quality player and only rotation makes him an issue for the upcoming fantasy premier league season
Van Persie - Holland and Arsenal,
Why was he on the right? Is Huntelaar really worth the sacrifice? Very quiet and quite wasteful. I am his biggest fan and could rave about him all day long given the chance but this was not a successful tournament. Maybe carrying Arsenal all season has finally taken its toll. Wenger will be pleased for the early exit and the quiet performances as it may put Man City off adding £50m or so to Arsenals bank account for him.
Van der Vaart - Holland and Spurs
Another player that I am a huge admirer of from the fantasy premier league perspective. Apart from Dempsey, no one shoots more and although his game was mixed this showed with the goal and hitting the upright. Will always be a fantasy premier league prospect as long as he's at spurs which is not guaranteed.
De Jong - Holland and Manchester City
Not really worth the bother of commenting on. Only question in any game is whether he's picked up a yellow card.
Players in Denmark v Germany
Bendtner - Denmark and Arsenal
Both Arsenal players were involved in goals in this one. Bendtner assisted with a header for Denmarks and gave another strong performance especially in the air. Hard to know where old big head will end up next year which will dictate his prospects.
Agger - Denmark and Liverpool
A good performance where him and his fellow centre back really stood up. Also had one chance with a header to underline that it was him not Skrtel that's the real Liverpool goal threat. Could be good value next year as Rodgers possession game should improve the defence. He should also be fairly certain of a place. Will probably depend on the value differential with Glen Johnson who should benefit from Rodgers tactics.
Podolski - Germany and Arsenal
An impressive performance including the opening goal. Prospects next year will depend on the position that Wenger assigns him. Will he play wide? Seems curious as there really is a glut of players for the position. Worth keeping an eye on his value and position prior to kick off on the 18th August.
As an aside what a fantastic player Ronaldo is. Class is indeed permanent. Will there ever be a time again when you set your captain choice in fantasy premier league at the beginning of the season and then leave it there until the end?. Van Persie was close this year but there will never be another fantasy premier league player like him.
Players in Portugal v Holland
Meireles - Portugal and Chelsea
Subbed off after 72 minutes after a rather questionable reaction to a pretty tame foul, this summed up really what a fantasy premier league irrelevance he is. Nothing worthwhile to report. Too rotation prone at Chelsea for fantasy premier league. Hard to think he will even be there.
Nani - Portugal and Manchester United
I am biased as I think Nani is an amazing player . He shoots, he provides key passes and he would always be ahead of Ashley Young for me if it was a straight choice. missed a sitter but set up a great goal for Ronaldo. Quality player and only rotation makes him an issue for the upcoming fantasy premier league season
Van Persie - Holland and Arsenal,
Why was he on the right? Is Huntelaar really worth the sacrifice? Very quiet and quite wasteful. I am his biggest fan and could rave about him all day long given the chance but this was not a successful tournament. Maybe carrying Arsenal all season has finally taken its toll. Wenger will be pleased for the early exit and the quiet performances as it may put Man City off adding £50m or so to Arsenals bank account for him.
Van der Vaart - Holland and Spurs
Another player that I am a huge admirer of from the fantasy premier league perspective. Apart from Dempsey, no one shoots more and although his game was mixed this showed with the goal and hitting the upright. Will always be a fantasy premier league prospect as long as he's at spurs which is not guaranteed.
De Jong - Holland and Manchester City
Not really worth the bother of commenting on. Only question in any game is whether he's picked up a yellow card.
Players in Denmark v Germany
Bendtner - Denmark and Arsenal
Both Arsenal players were involved in goals in this one. Bendtner assisted with a header for Denmarks and gave another strong performance especially in the air. Hard to know where old big head will end up next year which will dictate his prospects.
Agger - Denmark and Liverpool
A good performance where him and his fellow centre back really stood up. Also had one chance with a header to underline that it was him not Skrtel that's the real Liverpool goal threat. Could be good value next year as Rodgers possession game should improve the defence. He should also be fairly certain of a place. Will probably depend on the value differential with Glen Johnson who should benefit from Rodgers tactics.
Podolski - Germany and Arsenal
An impressive performance including the opening goal. Prospects next year will depend on the position that Wenger assigns him. Will he play wide? Seems curious as there really is a glut of players for the position. Worth keeping an eye on his value and position prior to kick off on the 18th August.
MICHAEL LAUDRUP CONFIRMED NEW SWANSEA BOSS - FANTASY FOOTBALL IMPLICATIONS
Michael Laudrup the 48 year old Danish footballing legend has signed a 2 year deal to become manager of Swansea City.
Quoted in the Guardian Laudrup said:
"I've spoken to the chairman and I'm very pleased to sign for Swansea City. It's going to be a new experience for me and I'm really looking forward to it. I've spoken to many people about Swansea and watched a number of their games on DVD. Everyone knows the style of football Swansea play and it suits my way of thinking."
This gives some predictability to fantasy premier league managers that Swansea will continue their short passing possession game that had a large part to play in the 14 clean sheets recorded last season. Although its hard to see that a player that made 166 games at Barcelona under Cruijff would play in any other style.
Outside success in management in his own country with Brondby, he was most successful with Getafe in 2007 -2008 where they reached the Copa del Rey final and the quarter finals of the UEFA cup. Subsequent spells at Spartak Moscow and RCD Mallorca were far from successful although Mallorca was plagued by financial problems and internal strife. It is worth noting that although he has a reputation for attacking football his sides have generally had reasonably respectable defensive records. Swanseas record was exceptional at home but overall they conceded 51 goals. This is 5 more than Sunderland and only 1 less than WBA so there's a question mark over whether they can repeat this next year.
So what are there prospects for next year. Laudrups appointment will at least mean the possession based game with players pressing high up the pitch will continue with Laudrup. However, there are a number of factors that make Swansea, from a fantasy football perspective, uncertain.
Lets start with the defence. Fantasy premier league managers feasted on the cheap defence with 14 Clean sheets. A large percentage of these were obtained at home where a rotation defence was likely to benefit. Apart from possible price increases to players value, next year will see the return of Stephen Caulker back to Spurs. Caulker had a fantastic season, although 4 clean sheets in 12 games without him (33%) isn't that different than 10 clean sheets in 26 games (38%). A more critical issue to the defence will be the future of Michel Vorm. After being indisputably the goalkeeper of the year in fantasy football there will be many premier league manager casting an eye over him. Probably the most obvious destination is Spurs with 41 year Brad Friedel being very replaceable. Therefore for fantasy football managers there's no certainty about the defence.
As far as midfield goes with Sigurdsson seemingly certain to sign elsewhere there's little prospects to excite you. Nathan Dyer was certainly a handy cheap option scoring 5 goals and 3 assists in 34 starts, although, it doesn't really set the world alight. Scott Sinclair's penalty duties made him a reasonable, if a little overvalued, prospect with a return of 8 goals and 5 assists. However, it was a disappointing output though after his Championship promotion season the previous year when he scored 22 goals in 46 games with 2 assists. It's interesting to note that his goal output was affected by Sigurdssons arrival and he only managed 1 goal and 2 assists after January. It remains to seen how he fares when Sigurdsson inevitably signs with another club.
Lastly there is the forward line for fantasy football managers to consider, or should I say, Danny Graham. 12 goals and 3 assists in 36 games is a fair return in your first season although 2 in your last 13 again suggests the negative affects of Sigurddsons output.
I haven't even started on the second season syndrome often experienced by promoted sides.
In summary then for fantasy premier league managers, Laudrup wont change the style but uncertainty of the defensive makeup of the team and the loss of Smeans that some preseason game analysis and fixture viewing will be required before any Swansea players are included in fantasy football managers lineups on August 18.
sources: Wikipedia, Soccerway, the Guardian
Quoted in the Guardian Laudrup said:
"I've spoken to the chairman and I'm very pleased to sign for Swansea City. It's going to be a new experience for me and I'm really looking forward to it. I've spoken to many people about Swansea and watched a number of their games on DVD. Everyone knows the style of football Swansea play and it suits my way of thinking."
This gives some predictability to fantasy premier league managers that Swansea will continue their short passing possession game that had a large part to play in the 14 clean sheets recorded last season. Although its hard to see that a player that made 166 games at Barcelona under Cruijff would play in any other style.
Outside success in management in his own country with Brondby, he was most successful with Getafe in 2007 -2008 where they reached the Copa del Rey final and the quarter finals of the UEFA cup. Subsequent spells at Spartak Moscow and RCD Mallorca were far from successful although Mallorca was plagued by financial problems and internal strife. It is worth noting that although he has a reputation for attacking football his sides have generally had reasonably respectable defensive records. Swanseas record was exceptional at home but overall they conceded 51 goals. This is 5 more than Sunderland and only 1 less than WBA so there's a question mark over whether they can repeat this next year.
So what are there prospects for next year. Laudrups appointment will at least mean the possession based game with players pressing high up the pitch will continue with Laudrup. However, there are a number of factors that make Swansea, from a fantasy football perspective, uncertain.
Lets start with the defence. Fantasy premier league managers feasted on the cheap defence with 14 Clean sheets. A large percentage of these were obtained at home where a rotation defence was likely to benefit. Apart from possible price increases to players value, next year will see the return of Stephen Caulker back to Spurs. Caulker had a fantastic season, although 4 clean sheets in 12 games without him (33%) isn't that different than 10 clean sheets in 26 games (38%). A more critical issue to the defence will be the future of Michel Vorm. After being indisputably the goalkeeper of the year in fantasy football there will be many premier league manager casting an eye over him. Probably the most obvious destination is Spurs with 41 year Brad Friedel being very replaceable. Therefore for fantasy football managers there's no certainty about the defence.
As far as midfield goes with Sigurdsson seemingly certain to sign elsewhere there's little prospects to excite you. Nathan Dyer was certainly a handy cheap option scoring 5 goals and 3 assists in 34 starts, although, it doesn't really set the world alight. Scott Sinclair's penalty duties made him a reasonable, if a little overvalued, prospect with a return of 8 goals and 5 assists. However, it was a disappointing output though after his Championship promotion season the previous year when he scored 22 goals in 46 games with 2 assists. It's interesting to note that his goal output was affected by Sigurdssons arrival and he only managed 1 goal and 2 assists after January. It remains to seen how he fares when Sigurdsson inevitably signs with another club.
Lastly there is the forward line for fantasy football managers to consider, or should I say, Danny Graham. 12 goals and 3 assists in 36 games is a fair return in your first season although 2 in your last 13 again suggests the negative affects of Sigurddsons output.
I haven't even started on the second season syndrome often experienced by promoted sides.
In summary then for fantasy premier league managers, Laudrup wont change the style but uncertainty of the defensive makeup of the team and the loss of Smeans that some preseason game analysis and fixture viewing will be required before any Swansea players are included in fantasy football managers lineups on August 18.
sources: Wikipedia, Soccerway, the Guardian
Sunday, 10 June 2012
FANTASY FOOTBALL STRATEGY - 23 RULES
This is my view on how to play fantasy premier league football in the barclays format. I've summarised my 23 strategy rules at the top of the article with detailed notes under each heading. I will also try and provide evidence for my theories as far as I can. I'm not saying put the rules up on your wall but they're worth taking on board and considering, even if you ultimately disagree with some or all of them:
1. Choose and rotate players in form with strong upcoming fixtures
2. Some players are fixture proof through value or form
3 Don't panic. Your league is never lost before December - patience is the key
4. Underlying stats are the key - but you must watch games to interpret them
5. Pick players who shoot, not who rely on assists
6 Decide if a player is clinical or overperforming
7 Your captain choice is key
8. There's no such thing as the correct formation
9. Pick rotation proof players
10. Don't have non playing reserves but don't over spend
11. Don't double team in one position - especially defence
12. Pick the teams cheapest players in defence - attacking returns are too unpredictable
13 Ignore differentials for the sake of it
14. Goal keeper theory
15. Never transfer a player out before an easy home game
16 Set piece and penalty responsibilities are helpful but not the be all and end all
17 Don't be loyal to the team you support
18. Two transfers every 2 weeks are the rule rather than the exception
19. Transfer late in the week - value isn't everything
20. There has to be special circumstances to take a 4 point hit.
21. Don't use your wildcard early
22. Have a mentor
23. Always know what the top 10 overall teams are doing
1. Choose and rotate players in form with strong upcoming fixtures
This is the cornerstone of my strategy. Some fantasy managers pick solely on form. I dont believe this maximises returns. Always look at the next upcoming 5 or so fixtures and go with players who have fixtures against easy teams coming up. To prove my theory, I will look at the scores of 3 players in the instances where they got 10 points or more and see which teams they were playing against. Ill use RVP, Dempsey and Van Der Vaart ( 3 of my favourite fantasy players). Then I will rank there opponents by goals conceded in the final table of the premier league and then their final table position:
RVP
v Bolton (Ranked18th in goals conceded. 18th in final table position ) Home - 13 points scored by RVP
v Sunderland ( 7,13) H - 12 points
v Stoke (13,14) H - 11 points
v Chelsea (6,6) H - 19 points
v WBA (12,10) H -11 points
v Norwich (16,12) A - 13 points
v Wigan (15,15) H - 15 points
v Aston Villa (14,16) A - 11 points
v Blackburn (19,19) H - 23 points
v Liverpool (4,8) A - 13 points
v Wolves (20,20) A - 12 points
v Norwich (16,12) H - 13 points
The average rank of opponents in goals conceded was 13th and 14th of 20 teams in final table position. In the 12 times that RVP scored more than 10 points only twice were the opponents ranked higher than 10th in either goals conceded or final table ranking. This in itself is fairly conclusive proof of my theory but the numbers are more compelling for Dempsey and Van der Vaart. Before I go on to that, as an aside, the 12 games above totalled 153 points, 57% of RVPs total points in only 32% of his fixtures, with an average of 12.75 points per game.
Dempsey
v QPR (17,17) H - 11 points
v Wigan (15,15) A - 11 points
v Bolton (18,18) H - 13 points
v Newcastle (9,5) H - 20 points
v Wolves (20,20) H - 15 points
v Norwich (16,12) H - 11 points
v Bolton (18,18) A - 15 points
v Chelsea (6,6) H - 10 points
The average rank of Dempseys opponents was15 in goals conceded and 14 in final table position. Only 2 opponents had a ranking in either category above 10. The 8 games above totalled 106 points, 51% of Dempseys total points in only 22% of his fixtures, with an average of 13.25 points per game.
Van der Vaart
v Wigan (15,15) A - 10 points
v Newcastle (9,5) A - 10 points
v Blackburn (19,19) A - 15 points
v QPR (17,17) H - 10 points
v Swansea (11,11) A - 11 points
v Swansea (11,11) H - 12 points
v Blackburn (19,19) H - 10 points
v Bolton (18,18) A - 12 points
The average rank of Van der Vaarts opponents was also15 in goals conceded and 14 in final table position. Only 1 opponent had a ranking in either category above 10. The 8 games above totalled 90 points, 54% of Van der Vaarts total points in only 24% of his fixtures, with an average of 11.25 points per game.
Its worth noting that Wigan (15,15) and Bolton (18,18) featured for all 3 players. Wolves (20,20), QPR (17,17), Norwich (16,12) featured twice, as surprisingly did Chelsea (6,6) and Newcastle (9,5). Although it is worth noting that Newcastle were ranked far worse, 14th, in away goals conceded, so its far less surprising they are included.
In defence, the arguments aren't quite as compelling. Looking at 7 defenders the summary stats are as follows for opponents where clean sheets occurred:
Caulker: 10 clean sheets (average opponents goal scored ranking in final premier league table of 11, average opponents final table ranking of 11. 4 out of 10 opponents ranked inside the top 10 in both) 6/10 clean sheets at home
Kaboul 11 clean sheets ( GS 11, FT 13. 3/11 top 10) 7/11 CS at home
Hibbert 9 clean sheets ( GS 12, FT 11. 2/9 top 10) 5/9 CS at home
Evans 15 clean sheets ( GS 11, FT 14. 4/15 top 10) 8/15 CS at home
Williamson 10 clean sheets ( GS 11, FT 13. 3/10 top 10) 6/10 CS at home
Shawcross 9 clean sheets ( GS 11, FT 10. 4/9 and 5/9 top 10) 6/9 CS at home
Bardsley 9 clean sheets ( GS 13, FT 12. 2/9 and 3/9 top 10) 6/9 CS at home
In summary then, the average ranking of opponents, whether its in goals scored or final table position, in obtaining a clean sheet is no where near as low as the attacking stats. However its fair to say that close to 2/3rds of clean sheets will come from opponents outside the top 10 which is a reasonably strong argument. Incidentally 38/63 ( 60%) of clean sheets came in home games.
To end that analysis then, the case for picking players on fixtures is overwhelming with attacking players and while not so strong for defence still has a reasonably good argument.
2. Some players are fixture proof through value or form
The exceptions to the rule above are those players that are fixture proof or undroppable through
form or value. The most obvious example of an undroppable through form was Robin Van Persie. RVP was phenomenal and there was never any question that he could be dropped. The only other players who came close on form in my mind was Gareth Bale, Dempsey and Rooney. My way of deciding to keep a player if he goes a few games without a goal is to look at his underlying stats. Robin Van Persie and Gareth Bale, even if they went a few games without a goal or assist still produced strong shots per game and key pass stats which told you that points were around the corner.
The other exception was an undroppable through value. This is where a player comes in to a team through another players injury, or by a transfer to another club, or they unexpectedly break in to the first team and are therefore available at a price which is a bargain for that team. The best example this year was Jonny Evans who broke in to the Man U team after Vidics injury. A Man U player available at £4.5m in a team that would normally expect 18 clean sheets or so is a ridiculous bargain and really should have been owned by every manager. To put it in to context Patrice Evra and Rio Ferdinand who were the only regular starters were around £2m more expensive. Gary Cahill's transfer from Bolton to Chelsea gave access to a Chelsea player for around £5m where the other defenders were around £1.5m more.
Slightly different was Aaron Ramsey where the transfer of Fabregas and Nasri gave the opportunity for Ramsey to play regularly at £6.5m whereas the other 2 were a good £2-3m more.
3. Don't panic. Your league is never lost before December - patience is the key
I've put this high up on the list because it really is true. The high scoring premier league, 2 wildcards and the captain system means you've never lost early in the season. Being well behind in August and September isn't an issue. Even the person who finished overall 2nd in the Barclays competition was only in 148,000th position after 6 rounds and Brenda Wade who finished 24th overall, in round 12 (towards the end of November) was in 54,000th position. So don't panic and make loads of knee jerk transfers, taking lots of points hits or changing strategy. Hold your nerve, it will come right.
4. Underlying stats are the key - but you must watch games to interpret them
Again this is a fundamental part of my strategy. By underlying stats, I dont mean goals or assists, I mean shots taken, % shots on target, goal to shot conversion ratio and key pass statistics. In my mind, a players underlying stats and not necessarily what they have scored lately, are the key to their performance and whether you buy, sell or hold a player. As I said earlier both Gareth Bale and RVP had dry points spells but their underlying stats never dried up and points were always around the corner. In addition, underlying stats will give you an early pointer when a player is about to produce points. However, without watching games you cant really interpret the stats. For example, theres no point in having someone with good shooting stats, in terms of shots per minute, if they are constantly shooting from 35 yards. Yes, I'm talking about you Adel Taarabt! The next point will cover stats in more detail.
5. Pick players who shoot, not who rely on assists
This is really a debate focussed mainly on midfielders. I firmly believe that concentrating on players who shoot rather than those who provide assists is the key to success in this area. However, on points alone, the argument isn't that straightforward. The 3 top goal scoring midfielders with their points per game figures in brackets are Dempsey (5.6 ppg), Van der Vaart (5.1 ppg) and Bale (5.4 ppg). The 3 midfielders who top the assists rankings are Silva (5.3 ppg), Mata (4.5 ppg) and Valencia (5.8 ppg). In totals there's very little in it. The assist based 3 acheived 5.1 points per game and a point every 15.3 minutes compared to the goal based 3 acheived 5.4 points per game and a point every 15.5 minutes. On those figures the stats aren't particularly compelling . However, concentrating on shooting midfielders fits far better with the fixture theory. The shooting 3 had the following stats for number and % of points hauls over 10 points and being achieved against lower rank opponents for goals conceded and final table opponents:
Dempsey (8/37 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 7/8 are against opponents ranked lower than 10th in goals conceded and final points table rank)
VDV (8/33 games played produced10 point plus hauls. 7/8 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
Bale (7/36 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 6/7 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
Contrast to the assist based midfielders who have less 10 point plus hauls and against less predictable opponents.
Silva (5/36 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 3/5 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
Mata (5/36 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 3/5 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
Valencia (5/24 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 4/5 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
You can see that Valencia is an exception in all ways. If you read my teams of the season analysis on him, you will see that he is the exception to my assist rule. This is because his assists are often after getting behind the defence so his key pass conversion rates are higher.
As you will see below, I also believe that shooting stats have a greater correlation to goals than key passes to assists, making it far easier to predict who has the greater likelihood of returning points.
The important shooting stats are shots per minute, shot on target % and shot to goal conversion rate. Shots per minute is the best correlation to goals. Its not a perfect correlation by any means. However if the player constantly shots from distance (Adel Taarabt) or is just plain unable to score (Luis Suarez) then this will generally come out with a lower than 50% on target ratio. In addition if a player has an excessively low or high goal to shot conversion ratio that could mean they are due to bring that back to the normal, either by going on a scoring run or by a dry spell. More on this in "clinical or overperforming".
Predictions of assists can only be related to key pass statistics. However the correlation is pretty dubious though and I would never pick anyone solely based on that stat. This is especially so for non top 6 players. Adel Taarabt could provide key passes to Jay Bothroyd all day long but it doesn't mean he will get an assist out of it as Bothroyd couldnt hit a barn door. Whereas Rosicky to RVP is a total different matter. However, a lot of Rosickys key passes could be to Alex Song to blaze over the bar from distance. The stat is just too hard to correlate to assists.
6 Decide if a player is clinical or overperforming
This is one of the most difficult things to assess. A player has a run of good scores. Is he the real deal or will he just fizzle out. Papiss Cisse of Newcastle was a good example. He scored
13 goals in 14 games. Do you get on board or do you think the scoring will fizzle out. My own view on strikers is that if your underlying shooting stats are better than RVPs or Rooneys then its not going to last. With Cisse his shots per minute was no where near as good as either of the 2 elite strikers above. However his shots to goal ratio was off the charts, far better than either of the above. This is a sure sign of overperformance. The only stat which confused the situation was his on target %. This was exceptionally high which could explain his goal ratio. Watching him though, his finishing seemed to good to be true so I have stayed in the over performing camp. I expect his returns to diminish next year and he will settle at the 2nd tier of strikers. The other way to assess over performance is to compare his stats to previous years ( not available with Papiss obviously) and see how they compare, adjusting for any change in circumstances.
In midfield the benchmarks aren't so clear cut. Dempsey and Bale in my mind are the shooting stat benchmark but that's not as cast iron as RVP and Rooney.
Silva was the classic example of key pass to assist conversion overperformance which petered out after Christmas. In my mind this exposed the weakness of relying on others to get your points. While many people commented on his drop in form, to me he had just seen an exceptional key pass conversion rate level off to more normal level. As I said there is a definite difference between top 6 key pass conversion rates and the rest of the league. Never buy a player from a lower ranked team on key pass stats for the promise of assists. It just wont happen.
7 Your captain choice is key
A statement of the obvious really. You saw from the points fixture analysis that what you want is to have RVP with the captains armband at home to Bolton or Blackburn if possible. In simple terms the best player at home to the worst opposition. Generally I avoid giving the armband to an unproven player. This year it didn't go far past RVP, Rooney, Aguero and Dempsey. Having a captain who takes penalties also does no harm.
8. There's no such thing as the correct formation
Not many people agree with me here. Most have a pet formation and with the premier league explosion of goals many favour 3-4-3. I don't subscribe to this. To me you get the right players playing the best fixtures and the formation will sort itself out. The unpredictable nature of clean sheets has made me use 3-4-3 with a home and away rotating defence quite often. However this doesn't change my belief in the basic principle.
9. Pick rotation proof players
Many fantasy managers got bit this year when Mancini rested Aguero and Silva in one game as many people had them as captain and vice captain respectively. So while picking rotation proof players is a statement of the obvious, its unfortunately not as easy as it sounds. The real problem is in top 4 sides. If you take Man U as an example players like Young, Nani and Valencia are all subject to random regular rotation causing that sinking feeling when the team sheet comes out. Even Rooney, who is vital to the team, is rotated. Unfortunately with such vital players they are often rested when the easiest home games come along. In the 6 games Rooney missed or was sub for last season, 4 of them were Wigan, Blackburn and Stoke at home plus Norwich away. All very juicy fixtures with captain potential.
In the top 4 teams then, the only way to get rotation proof players is to pick those when the rival player is injured such as Valencia when Nani was injured. Otherwise you need to hope for the best, ensure all your subs are starters and hope the rotated player doesn't come on in the 88th minute.
Picking sides lower down the league with no cup commitments is the easist way to ensure you are not a rotation victim. Dempsey, Sigurdsson, Demba Ba had no rotation issues. However, no one will win anything with no top 4 players so just remember the above tips.
10. Don't have non playing reserves but don't over spend
All those people who had Shane Ferguson of Newcastle, who I think had 2 sub appearances all year, really suffered when the gameweeks came along that lost fixtures due to FA cup commitments. Its not worth saving £0.2m or £0.3m when, with a little additional research, you can find someone who will come off the subs bench to cover injury etc. Just do it by spending as little as possible.
11. Don't double team in one position - especially defence
My strategy overall involves not putting all my eggs in one basket and although I believe that with good fixtures you can have 3 players from one team I don't believe in having 2 in one position. Results, especially clean sheets are just too unpredictable to put too much emphasis on one team. Undoubtedly taking more risk can get more reward but for everyone who succeeds by doubling up there are far more who lose out. Home and away rotation in defence also means that you can maximise points by being able to switch players around depending on fixtures.
12. Pick the teams cheapest players in defence - attacking returns are too unpredictable
Last season the standout defenders for attacking returns were Huth, Hangeland and Baines. All 3 came at a hefty premium to their defensive teammates and gave fantasy managers nothing like the requisite returns. Always go for the cheapest defender who you think will not be rotated as the attacking premium is too unpredictable to be worth it. The only time I would consider paying the premium is when you think the transfer will be for a few games only and you have sufficient cash in the bank to cover what you need in the upcoming games.
13 Ignore differentials for the sake of it
If you need to catch people up in your league don't start by putting players in your team just because they are different than anyone else. The captain system plus a premier league goal tally getting higher and higher means there are plenty of opportunities to catch up without taking unnecessary risks. Again for everyone who gets lucky using differentials, there will be many many more who lose more ground by doing so.
14. Goalkeeper theory
There are 2 theories here. The first is that you pick an elite keeper such as Joe Hart with the second keeper being the cheapest possible. The other theory is that you find 2 cheap goal keepers that you can rotate home and away. If you had chosen Joe Hart at £7.0m and a cheap goal keeper at £4.0m with the intention of playing Hart every game then you would have collected 166 points at a cost of £11m. However playing Krul and Vorm of Swansea on rotation with a Newcastle bias when there was a conflict, would have yielded 180 points at a cost of £8.5m.
Most people have used the cheap rotation theory, although towards the end of the season I noticed more people using the elite keeper theory. Personally I'm in the cheap rotation camp. The above clearly shows the benefits.
Its worth noting that the same theory can be applied to your reserves in defence and midfield to maximise money available for other players.
15. Never transfer a player out before an easy home game
The worst example ever I have seen was the transfer out of Berbatov before he scored 5 goals against Blackburn. Always think very carefully before you transfer anyone out who has an easy home game. There has to be a better way to use that transfer.
16 Set piece and penalty responsibilities are helpful but not the be all and end all
99 penalties were awarded last season. Amazingly 27 were missed. Therefore 72 were scored at 3.6 per team although there was a bias towards the top teams. For example Man U were top with 11 awarded and City 3rd with 8. Rooney scored 6 penalties in his total of 27 while RVP 2 in his total of 30. Yakubu managed 4 in his total of 17. None of this means it is worth basing your transfer options solely around penalty takers. However, it is enough to make it worth considering the set piece and penalty factors when deciding between transfer options. If possible I prefer the captain option to be the penalty taker.
17 Don't be loyal to the team you support
I envy those people who support a team outside the premier league. There's nothing worse than watching Man U and wanting them to win without Rooney scoring because you have RVP as captain and your rival has Rooney.
However, only select players on merit not through loyalty to your team.
EXPLANATORY NOTE:
In the next few sections I'm going to discuss ways of playing. !n the discussion I will bring 2 sets of evidence. The first will be referred to as "top 10 evidence" and will be data from the top 10 overall finishers in the barclays league format of the game. While I don't want to take anything away from what is an amazing achievement by each of these people in any way, the evidence apart from obvious lack of sample size can be viewed with some scepticism. This is due to the fact that prior to this season, the top 10 finishers had played the barclays league game 26 times and had finished in the top 5,000 only once and in the top 10,000 only twice The average finishing position prior to this season for those top 10 finishers was 95,000. Why is this the case. Its hard to say but perhaps to win you need to take more risk and have more luck than the average person and therefore taking more risk can go either way in terms of reward.
The second set of evidence will be the "mentor" evidence. I will talk in more detail later, but in essence I keep an eye on one persons team ( who shall remain anonymous to avoid any injunctions that may come my way!). This person has been consistently successful and in the last 6 years has only been out of the top 5,000 once. To me that's a more reliable form of evidence although I would doubt any statistician would have much time for a sample size of 1.
18. Two transfers every 2 weeks are the rule rather than the exception
The problem with 1 transfer every week is that unless you are transferring like for like or have a bundle of cash in the bank, there's no flexibility to buy a more expensive player or buy someone in another position. Therefore, I only believe in one transfer a week if there's a compelling case to do so. Doing 2 transfers every 2 gameweeks gives you that flexibility and should be the rule rather than the exception.
Having said that, this is a controversial statement and of the top 10 finishers, most did transfers every week and the evidence is against me. On average the top 10 players did 2 transfers without a 4 point hit 6 times in contrast to doing 1 transfer in the gameweek with no 4 point hit, on average, 17 times. Hardly a resounding backing of my strategy. The mentor position is a little better with him having done 2 unpenalised transfers in the week 8 times and 1 transfer in the gameweek 12 times but still not a support.
However, I'm steadfastly maintaining my belief in this!
19. Transfer late in the week - value isn't everything
Again this is another very controversial view not shared by everyone by any stretch. I always do my transfers late in the week. The reason for this is that I want to be clear in my own mind that the transfers are thought through and the best option, not some ill considered knee jerk reaction on a Sunday night to someone scoring in the game I've just watched. I also do a reasonably comprehensive evaluation process on each transfer and that takes time. In addition I don't like the risk that comes with an early transfer in that the player may get injured in training during the week or another player in my team may get injured which immediately makes this the wrong transfer decision.
The problem with my strategy is that towards the end of the season I can be battling with people who have a value over £4m more than me and that can make a difference. However I will rationalise this buy saying I that while I may have to buy one of, say, Kelly instead of Hangeland, Hibbert instead of Baines, Valencia instead of Young and Dyer instead of Sinclair, I personally think in one player that's a sacrifice worth making for 38 games of properly considered transfers
Don't forget that ultimately good transfer decisions increase value anyway so one should cancel out the other. The drawback is that sometimes I am certain of the player I am going to buy but I wait to make sure I still believe it in 4 days time and I end up buying him as I thought for £0.2m more.
On balance though I still believe transfers late in the week is the best strategy.
20. There has to be special circumstances to take a 4 point hit.
Its always so tempting isn't it. If I could just transfer in x player then it would change my fortunes. However, rarely is a 4 point hit justified as the player would need to score just to break even. Therefore they should be saved for special circumstances. In my my mind, these are for double game weeks ie when a certain number of teams play twice in one gameweek. A less acceptable reason is an exceptional captain opportunity or if your team wont field 11 players in that week so the hit becomes 2 points effectively. If done they should be part of a plan that is longer term than just that game.
The evidence does support me here. Of the top 10 finishers the average amount of 4 point hits taken was 5 in the season. This was distorted by 2 taking 11 and 15 4 point hits and 8/10 did 5 4 point hits or less. The mentor only took 3 4 point hits further backing my theory.
21. Don't use your wildcard early
The first few rounds aren't going well and again like the 4 point hit its just so tempting isn't it to use that wildcard. You think that will immediately sort out all your problems and propel you up the table, especially as you know there's the wildcard in January which you can use if you have any problems then.
Well don't do it. In March or April there will be postponements due to cup matches or weather or both and a wildcard left to then can really make a difference.
The top finisher evidence wholeheartedly supports me again here. The average gameweek the top 10 finishers used their wildcards was gameweek 25. 5 of them used it in gameweek 36. The mentor used his in gameweek 28.
22. Have a mentor
A lot of people in business have a mentor or coach or such like. Someone to bounce ideas around with, someone to challenge them over their beliefs. I tend to read fantasy websites to see other peoples views and take part in forums to discuss transfers etc. I see this as something similar. However I took a step further and found someone who was consistently successful in the barclays format (see explanatory note above on his credentials) and follow their team each week as a way of challenging myself. I would never copy his team, I enjoy the strategy and thinking part of the game to do that. However, if he had a player in his team that I didn't, then I would take it upon myself to challenge my thought processes on that player and consider him again, then take a view if I wanted to transfer him in. Furthermore he plays in one league with a lot of very good fantasy managers. If the top few of those managers all had a player or transferred a player in and I didn't, then I would again, challenge the views I previously had on that player and make a decision as to whether I should transfer him in. In reverse if I'm thinking about selling a player and the mentor and some of the top managers in his league aren't, then that would force me again to reconsider and maybe re-evaluate the sale decision.
To me the above is just common sense and a way of learning and avoiding being rigid in your beliefs and not some creepy stalking type thing.....
23. Always know what the top 10 overall teams are doing
This is just an extension of point 22 and another way of making sure that I have considered all possible players for the round as well as challenging my own ideas on who should be playing. Again if all 10 managers had the same player I would seriously look at whether I was missing something in the player if I didn't have him.
Obviously the top 10 overall players will change every week and the players within it so one week one player could be in all 10 teams and in next week only in a few (although that extreme very rarely happens). This is unlike the mentor and his league which is a fixed number so its far less reliable but a good source of ideas none the less.
That's it then, hope you found it useful. Please give me any of your views, I'm happy to discuss
1. Choose and rotate players in form with strong upcoming fixtures
2. Some players are fixture proof through value or form
3 Don't panic. Your league is never lost before December - patience is the key
4. Underlying stats are the key - but you must watch games to interpret them
5. Pick players who shoot, not who rely on assists
6 Decide if a player is clinical or overperforming
7 Your captain choice is key
8. There's no such thing as the correct formation
9. Pick rotation proof players
10. Don't have non playing reserves but don't over spend
11. Don't double team in one position - especially defence
12. Pick the teams cheapest players in defence - attacking returns are too unpredictable
13 Ignore differentials for the sake of it
14. Goal keeper theory
15. Never transfer a player out before an easy home game
16 Set piece and penalty responsibilities are helpful but not the be all and end all
17 Don't be loyal to the team you support
18. Two transfers every 2 weeks are the rule rather than the exception
19. Transfer late in the week - value isn't everything
20. There has to be special circumstances to take a 4 point hit.
21. Don't use your wildcard early
22. Have a mentor
23. Always know what the top 10 overall teams are doing
1. Choose and rotate players in form with strong upcoming fixtures
This is the cornerstone of my strategy. Some fantasy managers pick solely on form. I dont believe this maximises returns. Always look at the next upcoming 5 or so fixtures and go with players who have fixtures against easy teams coming up. To prove my theory, I will look at the scores of 3 players in the instances where they got 10 points or more and see which teams they were playing against. Ill use RVP, Dempsey and Van Der Vaart ( 3 of my favourite fantasy players). Then I will rank there opponents by goals conceded in the final table of the premier league and then their final table position:
RVP
v Bolton (Ranked18th in goals conceded. 18th in final table position ) Home - 13 points scored by RVP
v Sunderland ( 7,13) H - 12 points
v Stoke (13,14) H - 11 points
v Chelsea (6,6) H - 19 points
v WBA (12,10) H -11 points
v Norwich (16,12) A - 13 points
v Wigan (15,15) H - 15 points
v Aston Villa (14,16) A - 11 points
v Blackburn (19,19) H - 23 points
v Liverpool (4,8) A - 13 points
v Wolves (20,20) A - 12 points
v Norwich (16,12) H - 13 points
The average rank of opponents in goals conceded was 13th and 14th of 20 teams in final table position. In the 12 times that RVP scored more than 10 points only twice were the opponents ranked higher than 10th in either goals conceded or final table ranking. This in itself is fairly conclusive proof of my theory but the numbers are more compelling for Dempsey and Van der Vaart. Before I go on to that, as an aside, the 12 games above totalled 153 points, 57% of RVPs total points in only 32% of his fixtures, with an average of 12.75 points per game.
Dempsey
v QPR (17,17) H - 11 points
v Wigan (15,15) A - 11 points
v Bolton (18,18) H - 13 points
v Newcastle (9,5) H - 20 points
v Wolves (20,20) H - 15 points
v Norwich (16,12) H - 11 points
v Bolton (18,18) A - 15 points
v Chelsea (6,6) H - 10 points
The average rank of Dempseys opponents was15 in goals conceded and 14 in final table position. Only 2 opponents had a ranking in either category above 10. The 8 games above totalled 106 points, 51% of Dempseys total points in only 22% of his fixtures, with an average of 13.25 points per game.
Van der Vaart
v Wigan (15,15) A - 10 points
v Newcastle (9,5) A - 10 points
v Blackburn (19,19) A - 15 points
v QPR (17,17) H - 10 points
v Swansea (11,11) A - 11 points
v Swansea (11,11) H - 12 points
v Blackburn (19,19) H - 10 points
v Bolton (18,18) A - 12 points
The average rank of Van der Vaarts opponents was also15 in goals conceded and 14 in final table position. Only 1 opponent had a ranking in either category above 10. The 8 games above totalled 90 points, 54% of Van der Vaarts total points in only 24% of his fixtures, with an average of 11.25 points per game.
Its worth noting that Wigan (15,15) and Bolton (18,18) featured for all 3 players. Wolves (20,20), QPR (17,17), Norwich (16,12) featured twice, as surprisingly did Chelsea (6,6) and Newcastle (9,5). Although it is worth noting that Newcastle were ranked far worse, 14th, in away goals conceded, so its far less surprising they are included.
In defence, the arguments aren't quite as compelling. Looking at 7 defenders the summary stats are as follows for opponents where clean sheets occurred:
Caulker: 10 clean sheets (average opponents goal scored ranking in final premier league table of 11, average opponents final table ranking of 11. 4 out of 10 opponents ranked inside the top 10 in both) 6/10 clean sheets at home
Kaboul 11 clean sheets ( GS 11, FT 13. 3/11 top 10) 7/11 CS at home
Hibbert 9 clean sheets ( GS 12, FT 11. 2/9 top 10) 5/9 CS at home
Evans 15 clean sheets ( GS 11, FT 14. 4/15 top 10) 8/15 CS at home
Williamson 10 clean sheets ( GS 11, FT 13. 3/10 top 10) 6/10 CS at home
Shawcross 9 clean sheets ( GS 11, FT 10. 4/9 and 5/9 top 10) 6/9 CS at home
Bardsley 9 clean sheets ( GS 13, FT 12. 2/9 and 3/9 top 10) 6/9 CS at home
In summary then, the average ranking of opponents, whether its in goals scored or final table position, in obtaining a clean sheet is no where near as low as the attacking stats. However its fair to say that close to 2/3rds of clean sheets will come from opponents outside the top 10 which is a reasonably strong argument. Incidentally 38/63 ( 60%) of clean sheets came in home games.
To end that analysis then, the case for picking players on fixtures is overwhelming with attacking players and while not so strong for defence still has a reasonably good argument.
2. Some players are fixture proof through value or form
The exceptions to the rule above are those players that are fixture proof or undroppable through
form or value. The most obvious example of an undroppable through form was Robin Van Persie. RVP was phenomenal and there was never any question that he could be dropped. The only other players who came close on form in my mind was Gareth Bale, Dempsey and Rooney. My way of deciding to keep a player if he goes a few games without a goal is to look at his underlying stats. Robin Van Persie and Gareth Bale, even if they went a few games without a goal or assist still produced strong shots per game and key pass stats which told you that points were around the corner.
The other exception was an undroppable through value. This is where a player comes in to a team through another players injury, or by a transfer to another club, or they unexpectedly break in to the first team and are therefore available at a price which is a bargain for that team. The best example this year was Jonny Evans who broke in to the Man U team after Vidics injury. A Man U player available at £4.5m in a team that would normally expect 18 clean sheets or so is a ridiculous bargain and really should have been owned by every manager. To put it in to context Patrice Evra and Rio Ferdinand who were the only regular starters were around £2m more expensive. Gary Cahill's transfer from Bolton to Chelsea gave access to a Chelsea player for around £5m where the other defenders were around £1.5m more.
Slightly different was Aaron Ramsey where the transfer of Fabregas and Nasri gave the opportunity for Ramsey to play regularly at £6.5m whereas the other 2 were a good £2-3m more.
3. Don't panic. Your league is never lost before December - patience is the key
I've put this high up on the list because it really is true. The high scoring premier league, 2 wildcards and the captain system means you've never lost early in the season. Being well behind in August and September isn't an issue. Even the person who finished overall 2nd in the Barclays competition was only in 148,000th position after 6 rounds and Brenda Wade who finished 24th overall, in round 12 (towards the end of November) was in 54,000th position. So don't panic and make loads of knee jerk transfers, taking lots of points hits or changing strategy. Hold your nerve, it will come right.
4. Underlying stats are the key - but you must watch games to interpret them
Again this is a fundamental part of my strategy. By underlying stats, I dont mean goals or assists, I mean shots taken, % shots on target, goal to shot conversion ratio and key pass statistics. In my mind, a players underlying stats and not necessarily what they have scored lately, are the key to their performance and whether you buy, sell or hold a player. As I said earlier both Gareth Bale and RVP had dry points spells but their underlying stats never dried up and points were always around the corner. In addition, underlying stats will give you an early pointer when a player is about to produce points. However, without watching games you cant really interpret the stats. For example, theres no point in having someone with good shooting stats, in terms of shots per minute, if they are constantly shooting from 35 yards. Yes, I'm talking about you Adel Taarabt! The next point will cover stats in more detail.
5. Pick players who shoot, not who rely on assists
This is really a debate focussed mainly on midfielders. I firmly believe that concentrating on players who shoot rather than those who provide assists is the key to success in this area. However, on points alone, the argument isn't that straightforward. The 3 top goal scoring midfielders with their points per game figures in brackets are Dempsey (5.6 ppg), Van der Vaart (5.1 ppg) and Bale (5.4 ppg). The 3 midfielders who top the assists rankings are Silva (5.3 ppg), Mata (4.5 ppg) and Valencia (5.8 ppg). In totals there's very little in it. The assist based 3 acheived 5.1 points per game and a point every 15.3 minutes compared to the goal based 3 acheived 5.4 points per game and a point every 15.5 minutes. On those figures the stats aren't particularly compelling . However, concentrating on shooting midfielders fits far better with the fixture theory. The shooting 3 had the following stats for number and % of points hauls over 10 points and being achieved against lower rank opponents for goals conceded and final table opponents:
Dempsey (8/37 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 7/8 are against opponents ranked lower than 10th in goals conceded and final points table rank)
VDV (8/33 games played produced10 point plus hauls. 7/8 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
Bale (7/36 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 6/7 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
Contrast to the assist based midfielders who have less 10 point plus hauls and against less predictable opponents.
Silva (5/36 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 3/5 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
Mata (5/36 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 3/5 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
Valencia (5/24 games played produced 10 point plus hauls. 4/5 are against opponents ranked lower than 10 in goals conceded and final points table rank)
You can see that Valencia is an exception in all ways. If you read my teams of the season analysis on him, you will see that he is the exception to my assist rule. This is because his assists are often after getting behind the defence so his key pass conversion rates are higher.
As you will see below, I also believe that shooting stats have a greater correlation to goals than key passes to assists, making it far easier to predict who has the greater likelihood of returning points.
The important shooting stats are shots per minute, shot on target % and shot to goal conversion rate. Shots per minute is the best correlation to goals. Its not a perfect correlation by any means. However if the player constantly shots from distance (Adel Taarabt) or is just plain unable to score (Luis Suarez) then this will generally come out with a lower than 50% on target ratio. In addition if a player has an excessively low or high goal to shot conversion ratio that could mean they are due to bring that back to the normal, either by going on a scoring run or by a dry spell. More on this in "clinical or overperforming".
Predictions of assists can only be related to key pass statistics. However the correlation is pretty dubious though and I would never pick anyone solely based on that stat. This is especially so for non top 6 players. Adel Taarabt could provide key passes to Jay Bothroyd all day long but it doesn't mean he will get an assist out of it as Bothroyd couldnt hit a barn door. Whereas Rosicky to RVP is a total different matter. However, a lot of Rosickys key passes could be to Alex Song to blaze over the bar from distance. The stat is just too hard to correlate to assists.
6 Decide if a player is clinical or overperforming
This is one of the most difficult things to assess. A player has a run of good scores. Is he the real deal or will he just fizzle out. Papiss Cisse of Newcastle was a good example. He scored
13 goals in 14 games. Do you get on board or do you think the scoring will fizzle out. My own view on strikers is that if your underlying shooting stats are better than RVPs or Rooneys then its not going to last. With Cisse his shots per minute was no where near as good as either of the 2 elite strikers above. However his shots to goal ratio was off the charts, far better than either of the above. This is a sure sign of overperformance. The only stat which confused the situation was his on target %. This was exceptionally high which could explain his goal ratio. Watching him though, his finishing seemed to good to be true so I have stayed in the over performing camp. I expect his returns to diminish next year and he will settle at the 2nd tier of strikers. The other way to assess over performance is to compare his stats to previous years ( not available with Papiss obviously) and see how they compare, adjusting for any change in circumstances.
In midfield the benchmarks aren't so clear cut. Dempsey and Bale in my mind are the shooting stat benchmark but that's not as cast iron as RVP and Rooney.
Silva was the classic example of key pass to assist conversion overperformance which petered out after Christmas. In my mind this exposed the weakness of relying on others to get your points. While many people commented on his drop in form, to me he had just seen an exceptional key pass conversion rate level off to more normal level. As I said there is a definite difference between top 6 key pass conversion rates and the rest of the league. Never buy a player from a lower ranked team on key pass stats for the promise of assists. It just wont happen.
7 Your captain choice is key
A statement of the obvious really. You saw from the points fixture analysis that what you want is to have RVP with the captains armband at home to Bolton or Blackburn if possible. In simple terms the best player at home to the worst opposition. Generally I avoid giving the armband to an unproven player. This year it didn't go far past RVP, Rooney, Aguero and Dempsey. Having a captain who takes penalties also does no harm.
8. There's no such thing as the correct formation
Not many people agree with me here. Most have a pet formation and with the premier league explosion of goals many favour 3-4-3. I don't subscribe to this. To me you get the right players playing the best fixtures and the formation will sort itself out. The unpredictable nature of clean sheets has made me use 3-4-3 with a home and away rotating defence quite often. However this doesn't change my belief in the basic principle.
9. Pick rotation proof players
Many fantasy managers got bit this year when Mancini rested Aguero and Silva in one game as many people had them as captain and vice captain respectively. So while picking rotation proof players is a statement of the obvious, its unfortunately not as easy as it sounds. The real problem is in top 4 sides. If you take Man U as an example players like Young, Nani and Valencia are all subject to random regular rotation causing that sinking feeling when the team sheet comes out. Even Rooney, who is vital to the team, is rotated. Unfortunately with such vital players they are often rested when the easiest home games come along. In the 6 games Rooney missed or was sub for last season, 4 of them were Wigan, Blackburn and Stoke at home plus Norwich away. All very juicy fixtures with captain potential.
In the top 4 teams then, the only way to get rotation proof players is to pick those when the rival player is injured such as Valencia when Nani was injured. Otherwise you need to hope for the best, ensure all your subs are starters and hope the rotated player doesn't come on in the 88th minute.
Picking sides lower down the league with no cup commitments is the easist way to ensure you are not a rotation victim. Dempsey, Sigurdsson, Demba Ba had no rotation issues. However, no one will win anything with no top 4 players so just remember the above tips.
10. Don't have non playing reserves but don't over spend
All those people who had Shane Ferguson of Newcastle, who I think had 2 sub appearances all year, really suffered when the gameweeks came along that lost fixtures due to FA cup commitments. Its not worth saving £0.2m or £0.3m when, with a little additional research, you can find someone who will come off the subs bench to cover injury etc. Just do it by spending as little as possible.
11. Don't double team in one position - especially defence
My strategy overall involves not putting all my eggs in one basket and although I believe that with good fixtures you can have 3 players from one team I don't believe in having 2 in one position. Results, especially clean sheets are just too unpredictable to put too much emphasis on one team. Undoubtedly taking more risk can get more reward but for everyone who succeeds by doubling up there are far more who lose out. Home and away rotation in defence also means that you can maximise points by being able to switch players around depending on fixtures.
12. Pick the teams cheapest players in defence - attacking returns are too unpredictable
Last season the standout defenders for attacking returns were Huth, Hangeland and Baines. All 3 came at a hefty premium to their defensive teammates and gave fantasy managers nothing like the requisite returns. Always go for the cheapest defender who you think will not be rotated as the attacking premium is too unpredictable to be worth it. The only time I would consider paying the premium is when you think the transfer will be for a few games only and you have sufficient cash in the bank to cover what you need in the upcoming games.
13 Ignore differentials for the sake of it
If you need to catch people up in your league don't start by putting players in your team just because they are different than anyone else. The captain system plus a premier league goal tally getting higher and higher means there are plenty of opportunities to catch up without taking unnecessary risks. Again for everyone who gets lucky using differentials, there will be many many more who lose more ground by doing so.
14. Goalkeeper theory
There are 2 theories here. The first is that you pick an elite keeper such as Joe Hart with the second keeper being the cheapest possible. The other theory is that you find 2 cheap goal keepers that you can rotate home and away. If you had chosen Joe Hart at £7.0m and a cheap goal keeper at £4.0m with the intention of playing Hart every game then you would have collected 166 points at a cost of £11m. However playing Krul and Vorm of Swansea on rotation with a Newcastle bias when there was a conflict, would have yielded 180 points at a cost of £8.5m.
Most people have used the cheap rotation theory, although towards the end of the season I noticed more people using the elite keeper theory. Personally I'm in the cheap rotation camp. The above clearly shows the benefits.
Its worth noting that the same theory can be applied to your reserves in defence and midfield to maximise money available for other players.
15. Never transfer a player out before an easy home game
The worst example ever I have seen was the transfer out of Berbatov before he scored 5 goals against Blackburn. Always think very carefully before you transfer anyone out who has an easy home game. There has to be a better way to use that transfer.
16 Set piece and penalty responsibilities are helpful but not the be all and end all
99 penalties were awarded last season. Amazingly 27 were missed. Therefore 72 were scored at 3.6 per team although there was a bias towards the top teams. For example Man U were top with 11 awarded and City 3rd with 8. Rooney scored 6 penalties in his total of 27 while RVP 2 in his total of 30. Yakubu managed 4 in his total of 17. None of this means it is worth basing your transfer options solely around penalty takers. However, it is enough to make it worth considering the set piece and penalty factors when deciding between transfer options. If possible I prefer the captain option to be the penalty taker.
17 Don't be loyal to the team you support
I envy those people who support a team outside the premier league. There's nothing worse than watching Man U and wanting them to win without Rooney scoring because you have RVP as captain and your rival has Rooney.
However, only select players on merit not through loyalty to your team.
EXPLANATORY NOTE:
In the next few sections I'm going to discuss ways of playing. !n the discussion I will bring 2 sets of evidence. The first will be referred to as "top 10 evidence" and will be data from the top 10 overall finishers in the barclays league format of the game. While I don't want to take anything away from what is an amazing achievement by each of these people in any way, the evidence apart from obvious lack of sample size can be viewed with some scepticism. This is due to the fact that prior to this season, the top 10 finishers had played the barclays league game 26 times and had finished in the top 5,000 only once and in the top 10,000 only twice The average finishing position prior to this season for those top 10 finishers was 95,000. Why is this the case. Its hard to say but perhaps to win you need to take more risk and have more luck than the average person and therefore taking more risk can go either way in terms of reward.
The second set of evidence will be the "mentor" evidence. I will talk in more detail later, but in essence I keep an eye on one persons team ( who shall remain anonymous to avoid any injunctions that may come my way!). This person has been consistently successful and in the last 6 years has only been out of the top 5,000 once. To me that's a more reliable form of evidence although I would doubt any statistician would have much time for a sample size of 1.
18. Two transfers every 2 weeks are the rule rather than the exception
The problem with 1 transfer every week is that unless you are transferring like for like or have a bundle of cash in the bank, there's no flexibility to buy a more expensive player or buy someone in another position. Therefore, I only believe in one transfer a week if there's a compelling case to do so. Doing 2 transfers every 2 gameweeks gives you that flexibility and should be the rule rather than the exception.
Having said that, this is a controversial statement and of the top 10 finishers, most did transfers every week and the evidence is against me. On average the top 10 players did 2 transfers without a 4 point hit 6 times in contrast to doing 1 transfer in the gameweek with no 4 point hit, on average, 17 times. Hardly a resounding backing of my strategy. The mentor position is a little better with him having done 2 unpenalised transfers in the week 8 times and 1 transfer in the gameweek 12 times but still not a support.
However, I'm steadfastly maintaining my belief in this!
19. Transfer late in the week - value isn't everything
Again this is another very controversial view not shared by everyone by any stretch. I always do my transfers late in the week. The reason for this is that I want to be clear in my own mind that the transfers are thought through and the best option, not some ill considered knee jerk reaction on a Sunday night to someone scoring in the game I've just watched. I also do a reasonably comprehensive evaluation process on each transfer and that takes time. In addition I don't like the risk that comes with an early transfer in that the player may get injured in training during the week or another player in my team may get injured which immediately makes this the wrong transfer decision.
The problem with my strategy is that towards the end of the season I can be battling with people who have a value over £4m more than me and that can make a difference. However I will rationalise this buy saying I that while I may have to buy one of, say, Kelly instead of Hangeland, Hibbert instead of Baines, Valencia instead of Young and Dyer instead of Sinclair, I personally think in one player that's a sacrifice worth making for 38 games of properly considered transfers
Don't forget that ultimately good transfer decisions increase value anyway so one should cancel out the other. The drawback is that sometimes I am certain of the player I am going to buy but I wait to make sure I still believe it in 4 days time and I end up buying him as I thought for £0.2m more.
On balance though I still believe transfers late in the week is the best strategy.
20. There has to be special circumstances to take a 4 point hit.
Its always so tempting isn't it. If I could just transfer in x player then it would change my fortunes. However, rarely is a 4 point hit justified as the player would need to score just to break even. Therefore they should be saved for special circumstances. In my my mind, these are for double game weeks ie when a certain number of teams play twice in one gameweek. A less acceptable reason is an exceptional captain opportunity or if your team wont field 11 players in that week so the hit becomes 2 points effectively. If done they should be part of a plan that is longer term than just that game.
The evidence does support me here. Of the top 10 finishers the average amount of 4 point hits taken was 5 in the season. This was distorted by 2 taking 11 and 15 4 point hits and 8/10 did 5 4 point hits or less. The mentor only took 3 4 point hits further backing my theory.
21. Don't use your wildcard early
The first few rounds aren't going well and again like the 4 point hit its just so tempting isn't it to use that wildcard. You think that will immediately sort out all your problems and propel you up the table, especially as you know there's the wildcard in January which you can use if you have any problems then.
Well don't do it. In March or April there will be postponements due to cup matches or weather or both and a wildcard left to then can really make a difference.
The top finisher evidence wholeheartedly supports me again here. The average gameweek the top 10 finishers used their wildcards was gameweek 25. 5 of them used it in gameweek 36. The mentor used his in gameweek 28.
22. Have a mentor
A lot of people in business have a mentor or coach or such like. Someone to bounce ideas around with, someone to challenge them over their beliefs. I tend to read fantasy websites to see other peoples views and take part in forums to discuss transfers etc. I see this as something similar. However I took a step further and found someone who was consistently successful in the barclays format (see explanatory note above on his credentials) and follow their team each week as a way of challenging myself. I would never copy his team, I enjoy the strategy and thinking part of the game to do that. However, if he had a player in his team that I didn't, then I would take it upon myself to challenge my thought processes on that player and consider him again, then take a view if I wanted to transfer him in. Furthermore he plays in one league with a lot of very good fantasy managers. If the top few of those managers all had a player or transferred a player in and I didn't, then I would again, challenge the views I previously had on that player and make a decision as to whether I should transfer him in. In reverse if I'm thinking about selling a player and the mentor and some of the top managers in his league aren't, then that would force me again to reconsider and maybe re-evaluate the sale decision.
To me the above is just common sense and a way of learning and avoiding being rigid in your beliefs and not some creepy stalking type thing.....
23. Always know what the top 10 overall teams are doing
This is just an extension of point 22 and another way of making sure that I have considered all possible players for the round as well as challenging my own ideas on who should be playing. Again if all 10 managers had the same player I would seriously look at whether I was missing something in the player if I didn't have him.
Obviously the top 10 overall players will change every week and the players within it so one week one player could be in all 10 teams and in next week only in a few (although that extreme very rarely happens). This is unlike the mentor and his league which is a fixed number so its far less reliable but a good source of ideas none the less.
That's it then, hope you found it useful. Please give me any of your views, I'm happy to discuss
Friday, 8 June 2012
TEAM OF THE SEASON - PAPISS CISSE
Papiss Cisse is an interesting one. The epitome of the debate that you will see in my strategy piece of "clinical or overperforming". His shooting per minute stats were no where near RVP or Rooney but his on target ratio was spectacular, far better than anyone. Yet despite that his shot to goal conversion rate was just not sustainable. However, all the debate over base stats aside, the facts speak for themselves, 13 goals in 14 games is incredible. Especially when you factor in that he came from the Bundesliga in the January transfer window so had no
pre-season or warm up games. There is no question that he could not keep up that ratio and unless Ronaldo comes back to the premier league or Messi decides he prefers money to Barcelona, no one could. However, for team of the season you just cant ignore 13 goals in 14 games and that's why he's included. A word of caution though, is that out of the 14 games the only games he scored in that involved a reasonable quality defence were.
Liverpool (H)
Swansea (A)
Chesea (A)
His goals ratio for Freiburg was pretty decent, 37 goals in 65 games, a goal every 1.75 games is not to be sniffed at, but I don't think anyone, Alan Pardew, included, expected the success that occurred.
Here's the stats:
Points: 105
Games: 14
Points per game: 7.5
Goals: 13
Goal every game ratio:1.1 games
Assists: 0
Bonus: 20
Bonus points as a % of total points:19%
Price range: Start (round 24) £7.0m. Lowest £6.7m round 30. Highest £8.2m round 38
% owned 18.7%
As an aside, the bonus points percentage of total points shows the advantage of scoring goals in a team outside the top 4. I don't think anyone could say that he contributes a lot to a game apart from goals yet the bonus points were a magnet to his goals.
His prospects for next year will largely depend on his price. I don't expect for one minute that he will repeat what he did this year but his base stats show that he should end up a quality second tier striker below the elite of RVP, Rooney and Aguero. To me if he keeps up his base stats he will be included when there is a good run of fixtures.
pre-season or warm up games. There is no question that he could not keep up that ratio and unless Ronaldo comes back to the premier league or Messi decides he prefers money to Barcelona, no one could. However, for team of the season you just cant ignore 13 goals in 14 games and that's why he's included. A word of caution though, is that out of the 14 games the only games he scored in that involved a reasonable quality defence were.
Liverpool (H)
Swansea (A)
Chesea (A)
His goals ratio for Freiburg was pretty decent, 37 goals in 65 games, a goal every 1.75 games is not to be sniffed at, but I don't think anyone, Alan Pardew, included, expected the success that occurred.
Here's the stats:
Points: 105
Games: 14
Points per game: 7.5
Goals: 13
Goal every game ratio:1.1 games
Assists: 0
Bonus: 20
Bonus points as a % of total points:19%
Price range: Start (round 24) £7.0m. Lowest £6.7m round 30. Highest £8.2m round 38
% owned 18.7%
As an aside, the bonus points percentage of total points shows the advantage of scoring goals in a team outside the top 4. I don't think anyone could say that he contributes a lot to a game apart from goals yet the bonus points were a magnet to his goals.
His prospects for next year will largely depend on his price. I don't expect for one minute that he will repeat what he did this year but his base stats show that he should end up a quality second tier striker below the elite of RVP, Rooney and Aguero. To me if he keeps up his base stats he will be included when there is a good run of fixtures.
TEAM OF THE SEASON - WAYNE ROONEY
The only forward who over the course of the season could be compared to Robin Van Persie. His points total wasn't anything like RVP's and he did go 5 consecutive games without a goal or assist. However, he did produce a goal or assist in 22 of 34 games (65%) compared to RVP 24 of 38 games (63%) which are important stats for a potential captain choice. The difference was though that, apart from his early season consecutive hat tricks, he didn't go on the rampage once he scored as often as RVP did. However, even for Wayne Rooney, a comparison with RVP of 2011-2012 is unfair. He also was subject to the odd rest by Sir Alex and also was played in a midfield position in some games which limited his goal threat. That may change with the purchase of Kagawa but who knows how much playing time Kagawa will get. Overall though, his base shooting and key pass stats were 2nd only to RVP which makes him a worthy part of the team of the season.
Heres his stats:
Points: 230
Games: 34
Points per game: 6.8
Goals: 27
Goals ever game ratio: 1.3
Assists: 8
Bonus: 37
Bonus as a % of total points: 16%
Price range: Start £12.0m. Lowest £11.9m round 25. Highest £13.0m round 35. Finish £12.9m
% owned 35.7%
His prospects for next year depend on similar factors to RVP. The Euro effect and fatigue from carrying Manchester United as an attacking force last year, although not such a burden as RVP had to carry. If the central midfield position could be sorted out so Rooney could maintain his position as a striker then this could really bolster his returns. I don't think Kagawa will be the answer as a goal scoring midfielder but in the unlikely event they were to sign Modric this would help significantly. One of the main factors in selecting Rooney for your team though is from an attacking perspective he is the only player free from regular rotation. Ironically though when he is rotated it is the juicy games that he misses. I have to confess to not recalling reasons for the 4 games he missed last year but they were:
Stoke (A)
Blackburn (H)
Stoke (H)
Norwich (A)
His substitute appearances were
Liverpool (A)
Wigan (H)
Of those games 4 out of 6 would be games you would be expecting high returns. The Wigan game was especially painful.
Overall though, to me he is not an "undroppable" and therefore his place in my team at the start of the season will probably depend on fixtures.
Heres his stats:
Points: 230
Games: 34
Points per game: 6.8
Goals: 27
Goals ever game ratio: 1.3
Assists: 8
Bonus: 37
Bonus as a % of total points: 16%
Price range: Start £12.0m. Lowest £11.9m round 25. Highest £13.0m round 35. Finish £12.9m
% owned 35.7%
His prospects for next year depend on similar factors to RVP. The Euro effect and fatigue from carrying Manchester United as an attacking force last year, although not such a burden as RVP had to carry. If the central midfield position could be sorted out so Rooney could maintain his position as a striker then this could really bolster his returns. I don't think Kagawa will be the answer as a goal scoring midfielder but in the unlikely event they were to sign Modric this would help significantly. One of the main factors in selecting Rooney for your team though is from an attacking perspective he is the only player free from regular rotation. Ironically though when he is rotated it is the juicy games that he misses. I have to confess to not recalling reasons for the 4 games he missed last year but they were:
Stoke (A)
Blackburn (H)
Stoke (H)
Norwich (A)
His substitute appearances were
Liverpool (A)
Wigan (H)
Of those games 4 out of 6 would be games you would be expecting high returns. The Wigan game was especially painful.
Overall though, to me he is not an "undroppable" and therefore his place in my team at the start of the season will probably depend on fixtures.
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